Courtesy of JNS. Photo credit: Molly Riley/White House
Vice President JD Vance (center) and House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) clap as U.S. President Donald Trump (not pictured) hosts a Rose Garden dinner at the White House, Sept. 2, 2026
(JNS)—U.S. Vice President JD Vance pointed to the Trump administration’s decision to go to war against Iran and the U.S. relationship with Israel on November 4 as among the main reasons that Republicans lost the 2026 midterms.
In a lengthy post on social media, the vice president described a conversation with a pollster who asked disaffected Republicans why they were voting for Democrats.
“The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses, were: end the war, focus on cost of living/inflation, put America first and change our relationship to Israel,” Vance wrote. “Our voters showed up, and the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats.”
U.S. President Donald Trump told the Wall Street Journal on November 3 night that the war against Iran “was a piece of it” in an interview about the GOP rout that saw Democrats flip senate seats in Republican strongholds like Texas and Kansas.
Trump added that he “would have done it again” and did not regret starting the war.
Vance went further than Trump on Wednesday Nov. 4, while attributing the argument to the president.
“The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night,” he wrote. “If you’d like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next six years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that’s at least honest.”
Exit polls suggest that U.S. foreign policy and the Iran war were key issues for voters on Tuesday, along with related issues like the cost of living. The conflict is deeply unpopular and has caused nationwide spikes in the prices of gasoline and diesel fuel, which have hammered the president’s approval rating on the economy.
William Galston, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and chair of its governance studies program, told JNS that Vance’s explanation of election results is “interesting but wrong.”
“I’m not sure where he’s getting his information, but I know where I’m getting my information, which is from publicly available exit polls and other sources,” Galston said, of the vice president’s claim that Trump-Vance voters voted for Democrats on Tuesday, Nov. 3.
“It’s demonstrable that they didn’t,” Galston said. “I’m looking at the exit polls right here. Only 7% of them did. The real explanation for what happened is that Trump-Vance voters stayed home in droves.”
Vance has described himself as having “realist” foreign policy views and has expressed skepticism about the nature of the U.S.-Israel relationship in the past.
Galston, who called Vance “more of an America firster,” told JNS that many Republicans and Democrats would favor a revision of U.S.-Israel ties but that voters were more focused on pocketbook issues.
“If you go to Iowa and ask people what they’re really concerned about, they’re really concerned about high diesel prices, because all the farm equipment runs on that,” Galston said. “They’re really concerned about high fertilizer prices, because all their crops depend upon it. They’re really concerned about the shut off of Chinese imports of agricultural products.”
Vance was one of the lead negotiators in peace talks with Iran and sent a letter to the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council in October to restart negotiations, the Wall Street Journal reported.
With the 2026 midterms over, Vance’s assessment will likely play into intra-Republican debates about how to approach the 2028 presidential election, in which Vance will be one of the front runners if he should decide to run.
Vance’s criticism of “establishment politicians” while avoiding directly blaming the decision to go to war on the president or the administration, in which he serves, contrasts with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, another potential 2028 Republican candidate whose state was one of the only bright spots for Republicans on Nov. 3.
