By Mordechai Kedar
(JNS) — The main trade routes in the world have taken a severe hit due to political events in recent years. The Russia-Ukraine war disrupted the flow of goods from China through Russia and Central Europe.
First, since the Russian army is fighting the Ukrainian military, it is extremely dangerous to travel through the region. One could be accidentally hit by an attack from one of the sides or be targeted by a side that believes your convoy is supporting the opposition.
Additionally, since the beginning of the war, Europeans have been trying to minimize their economic dependence on Russia to avoid funding Russian President Vladimir Putin and to reduce his influence over European countries. This is why Europe is reducing its reliance on Russian gas as much as possible and looking for alternatives around the world, such as Qatari gas or green energy.
The classic trade route — via the Bab al-Mandeb Strait between the Arabian Peninsula and the Horn of Africa into the Red Sea and through the Suez Canal in Egypt — saves ships from the East from having to navigate the entire African continent to reach the Mediterranean and Europe. However, that route has become unsafe as the Houthi terrorist organization in Yemen continues to threaten ships passing through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait.
The Houthis have been firing missiles at ships for several years now to show their military power and provoke the West. Following Israel’s war with Iran’s proxies in the Middle East, the Houthis have increased their missile attacks and pirate activities in the Red Sea. They have also hijacked ships that believe are carrying Israelis or are owned by an Israeli company.
The Houthis have never actually taken control of a ship with Israelis on board, but their maritime terrorism has created fear of such and poses a threat to the lives of sailors. Beyond that, the Suez Canal itself also poses problems. Just three years ago, a cargo ship got stuck in the canal, creating a massive traffic jam for more than 100 ships carrying goods. This incident caused a huge economic loss for many in the industry worldwide and delayed the delivery of crucial merchandise, as some 12% of global trade passes through the canal.
Any change in the volume of goods passing through can significantly impact economies around the world. A solution to this crisis has been found. A relatively new trade route from China to Kazakhstan passes through the Caspian Sea to Azerbaijan, then Georgia, Turkey and onto the final destination: Europe. This route — known as the Middle Corridor, officially the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route — avoids passage through problematic regions.
The Middle Corridor bypasses Russia via Central Asian countries and provides a solution to the disruption of goods via the Arabian Peninsula due to the Houthi threat. It also avoids a land route through Iran, passing instead via the Caspian Sea. European countries benefit from a safer route for the transportation of goods, which reduces the chance of physical damage to the merchandise for the likelihood of delays caused by maritime traffic jams, hijacking or looting.
The real beneficiaries of the Middle Corridor, however, are the countries it passes through.
One of them is Azerbaijan, which is set to benefit significantly from the Middle Corridor in several areas. Its position in the Caucasus and the Middle East has been improving recently. According to Azerbaijani government officials, the country has mediated between Israel and Turkey in the early days following Syrian President Bashar Assad’s fall and the rise of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham group, presenting itself as a mediator in regional conflicts.
Among the Caucasus countries, Azerbaijan has the clearest voice calling for the liberation of the region from foreign influences by world powers, positioning itself as a country with a strong character and a willingness to improve the lives of its citizens. Therefore, if the use of the Middle Corridor continues to grow, Azerbaijan will find itself in a very strong international position with undeniable geopolitical power.
The use of the Middle Corridor will make Azerbaijan a central hub for the transportation of goods between Asia and Europe. Many convoys will travel on its roads to reach Georgia, the next stop in the corridor. This will open up new job opportunities in various sectors such as construction (for road improvement and the building of rest stops), policing (an increase in traffic requires more police officers) and port workers (who will handle the added workload at the port of Baku with the influx of goods).
Azerbaijan’s economy will improve as it diversifies from relying mostly on oil and gas to include logistics and international transport. One of the most important benefits for Azerbaijan from the Middle Corridor will be the strengthening of its position against both European countries and other Caucasus nations that are not participating in the corridor. All the benefits of the Middle Corridor will contribute to regional stability in the Caucasus and enhance the security of its inhabitants. Any military or terrorist action that hinders or prevents goods from going through could lead to an international alliance against the perpetrators.
Israel, Azerbaijan’s close ally, is likely to benefit from this success. First, like other European countries, it will be able to import goods via the Middle Corridor. Secondly, Israel can invest in improving infrastructure in Azerbaijan and profit from future investments. Israel will also be able to strengthen its diplomatic ties with Kazakhstan and China by utilizing the corridor, which will bolster Israel’s global diplomatic standing.
The bottom line is that the challenges posed by the Houthi and supported by Iran are pushing the civilized world to find creative solutions for global commerce traffic, thus empowering the Islamic regimes’ adversaries, including Azerbaijan, Turkey and Israel.
Dr. Mordechai Kedar is a senior research associate at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies and is an expert on the Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamist groups.