Brr…winter, time for ear muffs and gloves. No one has to tell me it’s cold!
From medieval harvests to modern hurricanes, weather has always shaped our fate. Now, as some believe the planet is unexpectedly warming at a greater pace than what would have normally been expected, the oldest human story is being rewritten in real time. What history, psychology and public opinion tell us — and how we can respond.
There is an old saying, often attributed to Mark Twain: “Climate is what we expect; weather is what we get.”
For most of human history, that expectation was a matter of survival.
Long before satellites tracked hurricanes across the Atlantic, before Doppler radar lit up storm cells in red and purple and before smartphone alerts told us when to seek shelter, people lived by the sky. They watched clouds the way sailors watched tides. They read frost on the ground the way farmers read scripture. And when the weather turned against them, there was no early warning, no evacuation route and no government agency standing by with bottled water and cots.
There was only hope, experience and prayer.
Today we live in a world where we can see a hurricane form off the coast of Africa and track it for two weeks as it marches toward Florida. We can predict tornado outbreaks days in advance. We can warn farmers of drought and heat stress months ahead of harvest. We can even model what Earth’s climate may look like decades from now.
And yet, we remain deeply divided about what all this means.
Global warming — now more commonly called climate change — has become a polarizing issue of our time. But stripped of politics and ideology, it is fundamentally a human story. A story about heat and cold. About crops and hunger. About floods and fire. About how weather shapes our bodies, our moods, our economies and our sense of safety.
It is, in the end, a story about our relationship with a planet that has always been powerful — and is now changing faster than any civilization has ever experienced.
The Long Human Struggle With Temperature
For most of Western history, temperature was destiny.
In medieval Europe, entire villages rose or fell on the success of a harvest. A late frost could wipe out wheat. Too much rain could rot barley in the fields. A cold summer could mean thin livestock, empty granaries and hunger by winter.
In the early 1300s, Europe entered what historians call the Great Famine. A series of unusually cold, wet years destroyed crops across England and France. Food prices soared. Malnutrition weakened immune systems. Disease spread. Millions died. No one knew why the weather had changed. They only knew that the sky had turned against them.
Centuries later, in 1816, the Northern Hemisphere experienced what became known as “The Year Without a Summer.” A massive volcanic eruption in Indonesia the year before had filled the atmosphere with ash, blocking sunlight across Europe and North America. Snow fell in June. Frost killed crops in July. Corn failed in New England. Grain rotted in Ireland. Food shortages rippled across the Atlantic world.
Families fled farms. Food riots broke out. Migration surged westward in the United States as people searched for more reliable land.
No one called it climate change. But it was, in every sense, a climate disaster.
For most of history, we adapted the only way we could: by moving, by storing food, by changing planting schedules and by praying the seasons would return to normal.
Weather was not just something you talked about. It was something you survived.
When the Sky Became Knowable
The modern science of weather forecasting is astonishingly young.
In the mid-1800s, sailors still relied on barometers and wind direction. Farmers read the behavior of animals. Coastal towns watched the horizon and rang church bells when storms approached.
The great turning point came with telegraphs, satellites, radar and computing. For the first time, storms could be tracked. Patterns could be analyzed. Warnings could be issued.
The difference was not subtle. It was life-saving.
In 1900, a hurricane struck Galveston, Texas, killing an estimated 8,000 people. There was little warning. The city was low-lying. Evacuation was impossible.
Today, hurricanes of similar strength trigger mass evacuations days in advance. Emergency shelters open. Power crews stage equipment. Hospitals prepare. Lives are still lost — but nowhere near at the scale of Galveston.
Tornado outbreaks that once arrived unannounced now come with watches and warnings that give families precious minutes to reach shelter. Farmers use seasonal outlooks to decide what crops to plant. Cities prepare for heat waves.
We have learned how to listen to the silent sky.
And yet, even as our ability to understand weather has grown, the climate system itself is shifting in ways that challenge the very tools we built.
What Global Warming Really Means
Global warming does not mean every day is hotter than the last.
It means the average temperature of the Earth is rising, and that rise is altering the balance of heat, water and energy that drives every storm, drought, flood and wildfire.
A warmer atmosphere holds more moisture. That means heavier rain when storms form. It also means more evaporation during dry periods, intensifying drought.
Oceans absorb heat. Warmer oceans fuel stronger hurricanes. Melting ice raises sea levels. Expanding water pushes tides higher onto coastlines.
The result is not a single disaster, but a pattern:
– More extreme heat waves
– Longer wildfire seasons
– Heavier downpours
– More intense hurricanes
– Shifting growing zones for crops
In the American West, forests dry out earlier in the year. In the Midwest, spring rains delay planting. In the Southeast, heat and humidity strain power grids. Along the coasts, flooding reaches streets that never flooded before.
This is not theory. It is observation.
What We As Americans Believe — And Why It Matters
According to the Yale Climate Opinion Maps 2024, roughly seven in ten Americans believe global warming is happening, while about one in seven say it is not. A majority believe human activity plays a major role. But belief varies sharply by region, politics and culture.
The survey found 59% of Buckeyes were somewhat or very worried about global warning. New Yorkers had a 71% somewhat or very worried frame of mind, Californians were similar at 71%. Floridians had a 62% belief, Texans had a 63% level, Alaskans were at 59% and Hawaiians were at 70%.
In some counties, belief approaches 80 percent. In others, it falls below 50 percent.
The Pew Research Center found political differences. Democrats are far more likely than Republicans to say climate change is a major threat. Conservatives are more likely to say the science is uncertain or exaggerated.
Many Americans say they see climate change in extreme weather; others say weather has always been unpredictable.
These differences matter because climate change is not just an environmental issue. It is an economic issue, a public health issue, a national security issue and a mental health issue.
Which brings us to something far more personal than polar ice.
When Weather Gets Under Your Skin
Long before scientists studied climate, people understood that seasons shape mood.
As a forensic and clinical psychologist, winter can be an emotionally challenging time for some. Self-proclaimed depression, calls to therapists and domestic violence increases during the winter months.
The NIH.gov website research reports approximately 41% of Americans report their mood declines during the winter. Therapy inquiries typically spike in January. This is attributed to the “New Year, New Me” resolution effect and the emotional fallout after the holiday season ends.
The Rape, Assault, and Incest National Network (RAINN) reports its hotline is 20% busier during cold winter months, and significantly busier during severe winter weather when people are trapped indoors.
Winter has always been a time of darkness, cold and confinement. In northern Europe, it once meant months of limited food, little daylight and physical isolation. In literature, winter is the season of ghosts, hunger and hardship.
Today, we have electricity, central heating and grocery stores stocked year-round. And yet, our brains still respond to light and temperature in ancient ways.
According to the National Institutes of Health and the National Institute of Mental Health, Seasonal Affective Disorder (SAD) is a form of depression that typically begins in late fall or early winter and eases in spring and summer. Symptoms can include persistent sadness, low energy, changes in sleep and appetite and difficulty concentrating. SAD is often treated with light therapy, psychotherapy and sometimes medication.
In other words, weather doesn’t just shape crops and coastlines. It shapes chemistry in the brain.
As extreme weather becomes more frequent, many people report a growing emotional burden — anxiety about the future, grief over environmental loss and a persistent sense of unease about what lies ahead.
The planet, once stable and predictable, feels less so.
The Climate Divide: Why Some People Don’t Believe
Despite decades of scientific research, a portion of the American public remains unconvinced that global warming is real or human-caused.
Based on research summarized by the Pew Research Center, Yale’s climate communication studies and broader social science findings, common reasons for disagreement include:
– Political identity: Climate change has become a partisan issue. Many conservatives view it through a political lens rather than a scientific one.
– Distrust of scientific institutions: Some people do not trust climate scientists, universities or government agencies.
– Belief in natural cycles: Many skeptics believe climate shifts are simply part of Earth’s natural patterns.
– Media ecosystems: Misinformation and selective news sources reinforce doubt.
– Economic fears: Some worry climate policy will raise costs, threaten jobs or expand government control.
– Cultural worldview: Deep beliefs about self-reliance, tradition and skepticism of elites shape perception.
These beliefs are not formed in a vacuum. They are shaped by community, identity, history and experience.
But denial does not change physics.
Human Resilience in a Warming World
If there is one lesson history teaches, it is that humans are remarkably adaptable.
We survived ice ages. We crossed oceans in wooden ships. We built cities in deserts. We learned to irrigate dry land and drain swamps. We turned winter into a season of light.
We are not helpless in the face of climate change.
But we are not invincible either.
The difference between collapse and resilience has always been foresight.
The Romans built aqueducts. The Dutch built dikes. As Americans, we built levees, some of which failed miserably during Hurricane Katrina. Each generation responded to environmental threat with engineering, cooperation and planning.
Climate change now asks the same of us.
Desmond Tutu once said, “Hope is being able to see that there is light despite all of the darkness.”
Hope is not denial. Hope is preparation.
Taking Responsibility
One of the most dangerous myths about climate change is that individual action does not matter. A common refrain from an anonymous source says it this way, “You can’t change the weather, so don’t worry.” A fellow Cincinnatian told me when I moved here 40 years ago — “Just wait awhile, the weather will change.”
History says otherwise.
Cultural change has always begun with individuals. Civil rights. Public health. Environmental protection. Women’s rights. Each started with people who refused to believe their choices were meaningless.
Climate responsibility does not mean living in fear. It means living with awareness.
It means understanding that our energy use, transportation, food systems and political choices shape the world our grandchildren will inherit.
It means recognizing that weather has always shaped human destiny — and now, for the first time, human activity is shaping the weather.
Mark Twain once observed, “The secret of getting ahead is getting started.”
The Future Is Still Being Written
Global warming is not the end of the human story.
It is a chapter.
A difficult one. A complicated one. But not one without hope.
We are the first generation to understand the full scope of what is happening to Earth’s climate. And we may be the last with the power to slow its most dangerous effects.
The sky is still above us. The seasons still turn. The rains still fall.
But the balance is shifting.
And what we do next will echo for centuries.
What You Can Do
Personal Awareness
– Track extreme weather trends in your region.
– Learn how climate change affects local agriculture, water and infrastructure.
Mental Wellbeing
– Take seasonal mood changes seriously.
– Seek light therapy or professional help if winter depression affects your daily functioning.
Civic Engagement
– Vote with climate policy in mind.
– Support leaders who prioritize proven science-based solutions.
Daily Choices
– Reduce energy use where possible.
– Consider your transportation choices, your diet and your consumption habits.
Community Action
– Support local resilience efforts: flood control, tree planting, cooling centers.
– Encourage climate education in schools.
Stay Informed
– Rely on reputable scientific and public health sources.
– Be wary of misinformation and sensationalism.
References available on request.
Thanks for reading the column, which is a part of my forthcoming book on Forensic Tales due out later this year.
Please go to the AI website (americanisraelite.com) and post a comment.
Questions? Suggestions? Send me an email at manges@drmanges.com. Be well. See you here next month.
