Iranian elite reportedly seeking exit strategy

Courtesy of JNS. Photo credit: Mahdi Sigari via Wikimedia Commons
A view inside the Iranian Parliament

(JNS) — Officials within the Iranian leadership are seeking safe haven in Europe, a French-Iranian journalist told the French press.

“Since precisely 24 hours ago, several personalities from the reformist clan have requested visas. Or at least are attempting, via a Parisian lawyer, to obtain French visas for their families,” Emmanuel Razavi, who specializes in Mideast affairs, told FigaroVox, a site of French paper Le Figaro, on Jan. 8.

In a separate interview, Razavi told the Nouvelle Revue Politique on Jan. 7 that one of the Iranians seeking visas is the speaker of the Islamic Consultative Assembly, Iran’s parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.

He said Ghalibaf “understood that the regime was about to collapse,” as does the family of Hassan Rouhani, former president of Iran (2013–2021), “whose nephew, through his lawyer, applied for a visa to France.”

“Betrayals and defections are, in fact, a daily occurrence at the highest levels of power,” Razavi told the Nouvelle Revue Politique.

“Some opposition leaders I spoke with say that what is happening is unprecedented. In reality, one senses that it is the Iranian people who have the capacity to deliver the fatal blow,” he added.

Razavi’s report follows one by The Times of London on Jan. 4 that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has prepared a contingency plan to leave the country if Iran’s security forces are unable — or unwilling — to crush widespread unrest.

The 86-year-old leader would reportedly evacuate Tehran with an inner circle of 20 aides and family members if he determines that the military and security services tasked with restoring order are defecting, deserting or refusing to carry out commands, according to an intelligence assessment seen by the Times.

An intelligence source told the paper that Khamenei’s so-called “plan B” would include his closest associates and relatives, among them his son Mojtaba, who is widely regarded as his preferred successor.

Beni Sabti, a former Israeli intelligence officer who fled Iran eight years after the 1979 Islamic Revolution, told the Times that Khamenei’s destination would be Moscow, arguing that Russia is his only viable refuge.

The escape strategy mirrors the flight of former Syrian President Bashar Assad, a close ally of Tehran, who fled Damascus by plane to Moscow in December 2024 as opposition forces advanced on the capital.

According to the intelligence source, preparations include identifying evacuation routes from Tehran and securing overseas assets, properties and cash to ensure safe passage if departure becomes necessary.

Khamenei is believed to control an extensive financial empire, much of it held through Setad, one of Iran’s most powerful semi-state “charitable” foundations, long criticized for its opaque finances.

A 2013 Reuters investigation estimated the network’s total value at roughly $95 billion, encompassing real estate and corporate holdings ultimately controlled by the supreme leader, the Times reported.