By Jonathan S. Tobin
(JNS) — Two things can be true at the same time. U.S. President Trump and his team deserve enormous credit for brokering a ceasefire that achieved the release of the final 20 living hostages. It’s also the case that much of what the administration is saying about maintaining the ceasefire is not merely unrealistic. It may actually be giving Hamas the impression that they can get away without disarming or giving up control.
The Trump administration has been sending mixed messages about the situation in Gaza since the first stage of the ceasefire it brokered. On one hand, the president, as well as his advisers, have been taking some well-deserved victory laps. On the other, there is a strong contrast between the threats being issued by Trump about what will happen if Hamas doesn’t disarm and a lot of what his top advisors have said about the agreement. The upshot of all this is the growing perception that there is a rift between the US and Israel.
The two countries may be allies and have interests that are closely related. But they are not identical.
As we sort out the various controversies that have arisen in the last weeks, the questions we need to be asking are not about the Trump team, or the Israeli government. Rather, they surround gaps between Washington and Jerusalem.
It is neither criticism of Trump nor an attempt to diminish the praise he has justly received to point out that now that the live captives and more than half of the dead bodies have been returned, the gap between the other goals of the deal may be enormous.
It is just as important to point out that the unwillingness of the Trump team to honestly address that chasm between the expectations they have encouraged and reality may be a source of real conflict between the United States and Israel. It’s also possible that the situation in Gaza will not only be a disaster, but will aid that element of Trump’s coalition that is both isolationist and hostile to the Jewish state.
So, while the alliance is still rock-solid and Israel’s strategic position may be more secure than it has ever been, the extent of what could prove to be a looming post-war fiasco in Gaza should not be underestimated. This situation could wind up bolstering the still marginal anti-Israel and antisemitic elements on the American right.
Still, as much as the anti-Israel media’s motives are more than suspect, they wouldn’t be able to publish anti-Israeli stories without the help of some of those in the Trump camp who dislike the president’s pro-Israel policies.
As much as friends of Israel have reason to be grateful to Witkoff and Kushner for their work, it’s no good pretending that the framework they have created isn’t rooted in mistaken notions about the nature of the conflict and fantasies about things that are highly unlikely ever to occur.
All decent people may hope that Trump’s vision of a Gaza free of Hamas and ruled by entities is realized. But it’s not too soon to point out that the chances of this happening are, to understate the matter, highly unlikely.
The notion that Israel is the obstacle to implementing the peace deal isn’t just wrong; it’s completely disconnected from reality. It is, after all, Hamas, the party that is supposed to disarm and give up control of Gaza, which has been openly carrying out mass killings of Palestinians it sees as political foes or dissidents. These actions make it crystal clear that the Islamist terrorists have no intention of relinquishing control of Gaza and that they are using the current period to rebuild, rearm and reestablish the terrorist state they ruled from 2007 to 2023.
Nevertheless, the messages coming from the U.S. remain mixed. Trump may keep saying the right things about “obliterating” the terrorists if they don’t do as he says. But his envoys continue to make noises about the ceasefire holding nicely and that they believe their “partners” in Qatar and Turkey will help solve the problem.
Even Trump seems to have swallowed the Kool-Aid about Qatar’s being a good friend of the United States and a tireless worker for peace.
The above is troubling in and of itself. But even more disturbing is the way the U.S. team, and most particularly Vance, continues to speak of Hamas’s disarmament being accomplished via an international security force made up of contingents from various Muslim and Arab countries, but not Americans, and even to claim that the pro-Hamas United Nations might also be involved in some way.
One doesn’t need to be a pessimist to observe that such a force being able or willing to take on Hamas is nothing more than a fantasy. Arab governments may dislike Hamas and wish to be rid of it, but the chances that any of them would actually take on that job themselves are about as close to zero as one can get.
The only ones who can deal with Hamas are the Israel Defense Forces. Yet if, as he has seemed to suggest at times, Trump gives the green light to Israel to finish off Hamas, that will not only end the ceasefire. It will also effectively blow up the entire process that the U.S. team have labored so hard to create.
Israelis understandably dread the prospect of the war restarting and the casualties that the IDF would suffer in any campaign to eliminate the Hamas cadres. But most understand that it may be necessary.
Yet it would, despite Trump’s tough talk, be a terrible blow to his administration’s foreign-policy objectives. And even with the best of wills on both sides of the U.S.-Israel relationship, that is going to cause problems. It is why Hamas is betting that Washington will opt to let it stay where it is rather than blow up Trump’s signal achievement.
Either way, the tension over a renewed war is going to create problems for the U.S.-Israel alliance that won’t be easily papered over. Among other things, it will be fodder for those elements on the right that are already growing louder with their resentments about Israel and Netanyahu.
Those in both countries who value the alliance are going to have to place their faith in two factors.
One is Netanyahu’s good judgement in knowing how and when to say “no” to the Americans when it is necessary.
The other is Trump’s good faith.
There is every reason to believe that he means what he says about eliminating Hamas and being willing to support the use of force to do it. Though his political opponents have continually predicted that he would betray the Jewish state, he’s done the opposite over and over again during the course of his times in office, building a record as the most pro-Israel president ever to sit in the White House.