Courtesy of JNS. Photo credit: Ali Haj Suleiman/Getty Images
People react to the fall of Syrian regime in Umayyad Square on Dec. 8, 2024 in Damascus, Syria
(JNS) — “Do not give interviews on the Syrian issue — and don’t even tweet about it,” was the short message Israeli ministers received on Sunday morning, a few hours after Syrian dictator Bashar Assad was deposed.
It isn’t clear however that they have anything to say.
Indeed, both the Israeli and U.S. intelligence arrays failed to predict Assad’s downfall. Even after the rebel offensive started two weeks ago, the assumption in Washington and Jerusalem was that even if the opposition forces managed to advance, Assad would somehow manage to cling to power.
But on Thursday, the tide began to turn. “We are seeing early signs of the collapse of the Syrian army,” Israeli officials told JNS. These signs intensified over the weekend, until the fall of Damascus.
In the wake of the Assad regime’s collapse, “The intelligence services are facing a huge, unprecedented challenge,” Brig. Gen. (res.) Yossi Kuperwasser, a senior fellow at the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs, told JNS.
“It’s very difficult to know where things are going. This obliges everyone to assume a little modesty when analyzing reality,” said Kuperwasser, formerly the head of the Research Division of Israel Defense Forces Military Intelligence.
The Assad regime was in power for more than 50 years. Some Israeli officials viewed the regime as the preferred option, considering it the devil they knew.
Over the last few days, the Israeli Air Force has been striking strategic locations and weapons depots in Syria to keep them out of rebel hands.
“I don’t think there will be real stability in Syria, and I think Israel will continue to do what it’s doing right now — strengthen itself in terms of border protection,” professor Uzi Rabi, director of the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies at Tel Aviv University, told JNS.
“But overall, Syria is returning to its natural state — it was never a real country. We will have to wait and see who will ultimately lead Syria. It will be difficult for any group to convince the others to let it lead,” he added.
Many Israeli officials believe the Syrian chaos is an opportunity to damage the Iranian-led “axis of resistance” — to prevent Tehran from transferring weapons to Hezbollah and perhaps encourage the Iranian opposition to try and take down the leadership.
“The Iranian axis, whose job it is to threaten the State of Israel, suffered a fatal blow. And Iran will not be able to arm Hezbollah now,” Kuperwasser told JNS.
However, there’s also the fear, as one U.S. official told JNS, that Iran might now try to make a dash toward nuclear weapons. “It might want to show that it is not weak as people are portraying it,” the official said.
Kuperwasser disagrees. “The Iranians cannot now threaten and deter through their proxies, nor do they have the ability to defend themselves after the Israeli [Air Force] strike in October. This makes them hesitant about rushing toward a nuclear weapon,” he said.
Furthermore, he noted, nuclear weapons will not protect the regime from its own people.
Some experts believe that the events in Syria could have a ripple effect throughout the region. “I think what happened in Syria puts all other dictatorial regimes at higher risk,” said Rabi.
“In Lebanon, it’s a different story, but different groups will also try to reduce Hezbollah’s power. In Iraq, the last word has not yet been said. And in Iran too,” he added.
However, while “the temptation of the people, who know how to identify weakness on the part of the government, could certainly lead to a revolution […] right now, it’s hard to see that happening without external assistance,” he said.
