(JNS) — Israeli Minister-without-Portfolio Gideon Sa’ar’s decision to break up his partnership with Benny Gantz’s National Unity Party could be the key to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remaining in power, according to a survey published by Channel 14 on Wednesday.
If Israel were to hold general elections today, Netanyahu’s existing coalition of right-wing and religious parties would garner 56 mandates, five short of a 61-seat majority in parliament.
Yet with Sa’ar’s expected six Knesset seats, the bloc could potentially reach 62 mandates, according to the Channel 14 poll.
Meanwhile, with Sa’ar gone, Gantz’s left-wing National Unity Party is projected to win 22 seats, down four from a Feb. 13 survey.
Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid Party and Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu hold steady over the prior poll and remain at 12 and 9 seats respectively, while the far-left Meretz Party gains one mandate, from four to five.
The various Arab parties, which Channel 14 counts separately though other media outlets include within the opposition bloc, earn 10 seats.
Two factions fail to get enough support to reach the 3.25% minimum threshold to enter the Knesset: the Arab Balad Party and the Labor Party, which ruled Israel for decades.
Right-wing bloc:
Likud – 25
Shas – 10
Otzma Yehudit – 9
United Torah Judaism – 8
Religious Zionism – 4
Total: 56 mandates
Left-wing bloc:
National Unity – 22
Yesh Atid – 12
Israel Beitenu – 9
Meretz – 5
Total: 48 mandates
Five months after the National Unity Party joined the Netanyahu-led wartime government, Sa’ar announced on Tuesday that he and three other lawmakers were parting ways with Gantz. Tensions between the two had reportedly soared in recent months, as Sa’ar sought to return to the right-wing camp while Gantz stuck to his left-wing principles.
“I respect my friends, the representatives of National Unity in the War Cabinet, but unfortunately, they do not express in it the voice, positions and emphases I would bring there,” Sa’ar stated at a press conference in Tel Aviv, in reference to Gantz and fellow National Unity member Gadi Eizenkot.
On Wednesday, the Knesset House Committee green-lit Sa’ar’s request to split off and re-establish his New Hope Party. The party vowed to “clearly express the national and statesmanlike worldview” and demanded it be given a spot on the War Cabinet.
Sources in Netanyahu’s Likud Party dispelled rumors that Sa’ar’s announcement had been coordinated with the premier and noted that no decision had been made regarding his demands. However, the sources said they believe Netanyahu’s response will be positive since Sa’ar now provides an insurance certificate for the government during the war.
Netanyahu has repeatedly rejected calls by some members of the opposition for him to resign and for elections to be held. The next national vote is scheduled to be held no later than Oct. 27, 2026.
MK Yifat Shasha-Biton, who joined the New Hope Party alongside Sa’ar, stated on Wednesday: “We will not join Likud, and we will not go with Netanyahu. We want to bring out the voice of…the moderate right.”
Sa’ar, for his part, said that although “there is no person in Israeli politics who has fought Benjamin Netanyahu more than I have,” Hamas’s Oct. 7 terror massacre of 1,200 people in the northwestern Negev has led to a change in the “national agenda and focus.”
